彩票悖论与序言悖论的同构性与统一解

彩票悖论和序言悖论都是关于合理接受的悖论,它们具有相同的悖论结构和悖论类型,也即具有同构性.然而,这两个悖论迄今没有一个公认的统一解.通过对彩票悖论进行同构变形,将其中的"信念"与"知识"的不一致转化为信念之间的不一致,从而使得序言悖论的预期似真度解悖方案亦可应用于彩票悖论.如果接受预期似真度解悖方案的相关预设,那么该方案就可视为彩票悖论与序言悖论的一个统一解.     

A class of additive transformation models for recurrent gap times

Abstract

The gap time between recurrent events is often of primary interest in many fields such as medical studies, and in this article, we discuss regression analysis of the gap times arising from a general class of additive transformation models. For the problem, we propose two estimation procedures, the modified within-cluster resampling (MWCR) method and the weighted risk-set (WRS) method, and the proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically follow the normal distribution. In particular, the estimators have closed forms and can be easily determined, and the methods have the advantage of leaving the correlation among gap times arbitrary. A simulation study is conducted for assessing the finite sample performance of the presented methods and suggests that they work well in practical situations. Also the methods are applied to a set of real data from a chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) clinical trial.     

Writing resistance together

This piece of writing is a joint initiative by the participants in the Gender, Work and Organization writing workshop organized in Helsinki, Finland, in June 2019. This is a particular form of writing differently. We engage in collective writing and embody what it means to write resistance to established academic practices and conventions together. This is a form of emancipatory initiative where we care for each other as writers and as human beings. There are many author voices and we aim to keep the text open and dialogical. As such, this piece of writing is about suppressed thoughts and feelings that our collective picket line allows us to express. In order to maintain the open‐ended nature of the text, and perhaps also to retain some ‘dirtiness’ that is essential to writing, the article has not been language checked throughout by a native speaker of English.     

汇率货币模型的非线性协整关系检验——基于深度GRU神经网络

本文采用深度门控循环单元（GRU）神经网络探讨三种汇率货币模型（弹性价格、前瞻性和实际利率差模型）的非线性协整关系。GRU技术在深度学习中具有智能记忆、自主学习和强逼近能力等优点。为此，本文运用该技术对6组典型浮动汇率制国别数据进行了非线性Johansen协整检验。结果表明，汇率与宏观经济基本面之间存在非线性协整关系，从而说明了货币模型在非线性条件下的有效性，以及先进的深度学习工具在检验经济理论中的优势。     

Uniform consistency rate of kNN regression estimation for functional time series data

In this paper, we investigate the k-nearest neighbours (kNN) estimation of nonparametric regression model for strong mixing functional time series data. More precisely, we establish the uniform almost complete convergence rate of the kNN estimator under some mild conditions. Furthermore, a simulation study and an empirical application to the real data analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) are carried out to illustrate the finite sample performances and the usefulness of the kNN approach.     

Benevolence-dominant,authoritarianism-dominant,and classical paternalistic leadership: Testing their relationships with subordinate performance

We propose a new typology of paternalistic leadership styles based on how leaders demonstrate authoritarianism and benevolence, the two essential components of this type of leadership. Benevolence-dominant paternalistic leadership refers to leaders' sole dependence on the use of benevolence without their strong assertion of authority, whereas authoritarianism-dominant paternalistic leadership is based mainly on authoritarianism itself; classical paternalistic leadership, which best fits early observations of paternalistic leaders, refers to the salient combination of both leadership components. We used two distinct samples and methods to test this typology and the association with subordinate performance. Across the two studies, a field investigation with Taiwanese military supervisor-subordinate dyads and a hypothetical scenario experiment with U.S. working adults, we found a positive relationship between classical paternalistic leadership and subordinate performance as strong as that between benevolence-dominant paternalistic leadership and performance. Our findings echo the phenomenon that paternalistic leaders tend to combine benevolence with authoritarianism to affect subordinate performance.     

雄安新区科技企业创新能力评价研究

科技企业是实现科技创新的驱动者和科技成果转化的重要载体,也是推动研究开发的重要参与者,科学评价科技企业创新能力有助于企业自身不断发展壮大。在分析国内外新区科技企业创新驱动发展相关理论研究的基础上,从研发投入、研发基础、研发效益和现代科技四个角度,运用层次分析法构建科技企业创新能力评价系统,并通过实证分析说明评价系统的可靠性;根据评价系统测算出现阶段雄安新区科技企业创新能力,通过与成熟新区科技企业的比较,发现其短板和不足,力图为决策者科学合理评价、管理科技企业创新发展提供有益参考。     

新中国成立初期民族地区爱国卫生运动与国家治理效能研究

新中国成立后,党和国家高度重视民族地区的卫生工作,爱国卫生运动的开展不仅有效解决了当时民族地区的公共卫生危机,还促进了民族地区的社会发展。爱国卫生运动是中国国家治理初期探索的重要部分,这一探索在日后的实践中不断丰富,奠定了中国国家治理模式的基础。爱国卫生运动的成功之处,从短时期看,总体性动员能最大限度地调动资源,实现了快速应对的最优化,依靠党的组织系统,以情感性动员强化国民的共同体意识,树立国家的权威地位;从长时期看,爱国卫生运动成果的制度化促进了“以人为中心”的现代化,爱国卫生运动唤醒了少数民族群众的主体意识,少数民族积极参与到民族地区社会发展,国家逐步在民族地区建立现代科层制管理机构,进而推进民族地区的社会发展和国家治理体系建设。     

中国英语的本质、根源及发展——基于语言变异理论的解读

语言变异理论基于语言系统异质说,对英语变体的形成具有较强的解释力。如果将世界英语看做是一个有序异质的系统,不同区域所使用的英语都有本土化的异质因素(共核英语除外),当这些异质因素在本土社团中的影响越来越大并开始传播时区域变体就会产生。中国英语就是这样一个典型实例。作为一种英语变体,其语法规范以母语国家的英语语法为标准,擅长表达中国社会特有的经济、文化等概念和事物,在句式和语篇诸多层面受到汉语思维的影响。中国英语是英语全球化与本土化相结合的产物,是社会发展的必然结果。中国英语作为一种新的语言变体,受到学界越来越多的关注,其发展方向对语言学的研究和我国的英语教学都将产生重要的影响。